It contains current totals only, not historical data. Demographic elements are directly integrated into the model (Po, total population). S1). Med. Friendly and widely available mathematical modeling will enable rational planning (i.e., prediction of hospital bed occupancy, design of testing campaigns, and reinforcement/redirection of social distancing strategies). Note that this model enables the description of the progressive exhaustion of the epidemic, as expected by the progressive depletion of the susceptible population. We explored different values of for a fixed assumed value of delay_q (i.e., delay_q=4days) and found a set (progression) of that reasonably reproduces the progression of the first wave of COVID-19 in NYC during the first wave of the pandemic episode. Positive RT-PCR test results in patients recovered from COVID-19. Our selection of a=0.85 is based on a recent large-scale serological study conducted in New York City (NYC) to find anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among the population and a computational model27. Dis. Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Corentin Cot & Francesco Sannino, Omar Malik, Bowen Gong, Boleslaw K. Szymanski, Alessandro Vespignani, Huaiyu Tian, Gabriel M. Leung, Benjamin J. in a recent report41. Modelling the initial epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. This is an example of data retrieved directly from a table on a web page. Our model suggests that the early adoption of wide spread testing and contact tracing to quickly finding infected individuals, in combination with social distancing, is much more effective than only social distancing or massive testing alone (Fig. No. (C) Model prediction (yellow) and actual number of new cases of COVID-19 per day (as reported by the NYC authorities; blue bars; https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) during the period from March 1 to June30, 2020. If you want to return to the default settings, click the Reset to Default Values button. Our demographic model allows a definition of the fraction of infected subjects (), and the span of days between infection and effective quarantine, given a positive diagnostic (delay_q). If you need to go back and make any changes, you can always do so by going to our Privacy Policy page. In an initial stage, the local epidemic progression is consistent with a simple first order exponential model d(X)/dt= [X], where [X] is the number of initially infected subjects. The Table below lists the features of COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced. This simple plotting strategy is highly useful for analyzing the local rate of progression of the pandemic. "In particular, having queries be free will allow greater participation, and the ability to quickly share results and analysis with colleagues and the public will . Health 8, e488e496 (2020). (1) and (2), enables stepwise numerical integration, for example by the Euler method. Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za , 41(2), p.145. Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2001191 (2020). Sci. Bi, Q. et al. Importantly, the model assumes that infection results in (at least) short-term immunity upon recovery. 1), the rate of new infections is corrected by two factors that together define an effective demographic density of the region: (1) (PoX)/Po. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Download our complete dataset of COVID-19 metrics on GitHub. Kermack, W. & Mckendrick, A. G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Article The socio-economic effects of COVID-19 have been and will be also remarkable3,4, and have to be yet fully quantified. The links below provide more information about each website. J. Environ. COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. MathSciNet Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. These adapted models (i.e., SEIR models) have been remarkably useful for describing epidemic events and have contributed enormously to our understanding of epidemic progression19, COVID-19 included20. Version 2 of our API is available. This novel multi-compartment demographic model formulation considers that new infections are proportional to (XR; infected-retrieved). Mortality Risk of COVID-19Our World in Data. Create a new Power BI workbook. Overall, the model is capable of closely reproducing the progression of reported cases for urban areas. South Korea based its strategy of COVID-19 control on widespread testing, efficient contact tracing, and self-quarantine programs for suspected positive individuals51. Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. 4C). NYT data. Google Scholar. R. Soc. London: An outdated Excel spreadsheet has been blamed for a new coronavirus fiasco in England, where as many as 50,000 . A technical error with an Excel spreadsheet is believed to have caused 16,000 cases of coronavirus to be missed from national tallies, causing a "shambolic" delay to tracing efforts. Infect. Colors are also associated with the economic and recreational activities that are allowed and the level of social distancing enforced. For instance, the outbreak in NYC (Fig. Our goal is to help you work faster in Excel. We have solved this differential set, step by step, updating the values of asymptomatic individuals (A), symptomatic individuals (S), and deceased patients (D), and susceptible population (PoX) according to Eqs. Google Sheets can both feel and load slower as you fill more and more cells and sheets . The files have now been split into smaller multiple files . This assumption is based on experimental evidence suggesting that rhesus macaques that recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection could not be reinfected22. Figure3 shows the predicted trend of the pandemic in NYC during the initial stage of the pandemic wave from March to May, 2020. 382, 11771179 (2020). 5A,B) at the time of this writing. Wang, K. et al. We show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic conditions and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. In both tools you can click the yellow information buttons on each page to see definitions and explanations. Predictions on the possible evolution of COVID-19 based on mathematical modeling could therefore represent important tools for designing and/or evaluating countermeasures13,15,16,17. CDC has updated select ways to operate healthcare systems effectively in response to COVID-19 vaccination. Our analysis suggests that the sudden increase in the slope of the number of daily new cases that has been observed by the end of 2020 was originated by a progressive relaxation of the social distancing (i.e., a linear change in the values form 0.75 to 0.68 during 150days). Linton, N. M. et al. PLoS ONE 15, e0241743 (2020). Bianconi, A., Marcelli, A., Campi, G. & Perali, A. Daily change by region and continent. Over 50 Examples of COVID-19 Scams and How to Avoid Them. We further propose that o may be calculated from actual epidemiological data corresponding to the first exponential stage of COVID-19 local epidemics. Slider with three articles shown per slide. Both tools, as described earlier, allow you to estimate the potential effectiveness of each of three contact tracing strategies. Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19). On this page, you'll find links to resources on important issues such as symptoms, risks, and how you . Variations of the original SIR model have been adapted to include other subpopulations, such as asymptomatic2 and exposed individuals19. Saving Lives, Protecting People, Given new evidence on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, CDC has updated the, The White House announced that vaccines will be required for international travelers coming into the United States, with an effective date of November 8, 2021. The weekly rate of new Covid-19 cases has soared in dozens of areas of England, following the addition of nearly 16,000 cases . J. Clin. Model formulation. Elife 9, e55570 (2020). & Tan, D. Role of electronic media in mitigating the psychological impacts of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). At this point, some territories in Latin America (i.e., Mxico) are just experiencing a second exponential phase of the COVID-19 pandemic at home and do not appear having yet implemented proper containment measures as rapidly as needed. Sponsor Monitoring of CACFP (219.85 KB) FNS issued eight child nutrition programs off-site monitoring fact sheets to assist states and sponsors in conducting off-site monitoring of child nutrition programs during the pandemic. eople may have caught Covid-19 because an Excel spreadsheet failure stopped nearly 16,000 cases being transferred swiftly to the test-and-trace system, a Cabinet minister admitted today. Non-healthcare facilities such as correctional facilities may also find this tool useful. MMA formulated the model and run the simulations. Source: Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Find a Location Summary Dashboard Covid-19 Community Levels by Parish Case Data Death Data Hospital Data Vaccination Data Comparison of Percentage of COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, Vaccinations, and Populations by Race by Parish Helpful Links Internet Explorer). Coronavirus. (2020). Roosa, K. et al. TL;DR Use this Google Sheets template to very quickly track confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries related to the Coronavirus worldwide. HIGHLIGHTS Four new Member States (Algeria, Austria, Croatia, and Switzerland) reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. (1) and (2) is sufficient to describe the evolution of the number of asymptomatic individuals (A), symptomatic individuals (S), and deceased patients (D) through the specification of several constants and simple relations. Charact. An "IT failure" within Public Health England - reported to be a problem with an Excel spreadsheet reaching its maximum size - has been blamed by ministers for a delay in the reporting of 15,841 COVID-19 cases in England. Excel workbooks are attached below the descriptions. Step 1 Getting the data. Retrieved subjects include subjects who have recovered from the infection and do not shed virus, quarantined individuals, and deceased patients. Testing quickly ramped up to more than 10,000 tests per day, mainly in the city of Daegu (with a metropolitan area of nearly 2.5 million people). The Global COVID-19 tracker provided key metrics on where the pandemic was spreading, and impacts, including metrics on mortality and hospitalizations. Latest updates on Coronavirus. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000340. Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D. & Hollingsworth, T. D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?. https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa020/5735321. Biosci. In practice, social distancing must be a function of time. In the demographic model, we have defined as a dimensionless social distancing parameter, while 1 is the remaining fraction of activity in a society after the application of social distancing measures that reduce the level of activity in an fraction. PubMedGoogle Scholar. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid. Epidemiological data related to the onset of a COVID-19 pandemic in different regions. First, we illustrate the use of the model by recreating the pandemic progression in NYC, one of the most densely urban areas worldwide. Here, we construct a very simple epidemiological model for the propagation of COVID-19 in urban areas. Start Free Trial SYSTEM OVERVIEW. Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea. (B) Natural logarithm of the cumulative number of positive cases of COVID-19 infection in Spain (yellow circles), Iran (green squares), and NYC (blue triangles and squares). This simple embodiment of the model may enable an accurate forecast of pandemic scenarios in territories (or time periods) in which massive testing campaigns were not enforced (e.g., Mexico City; a case that we will analyze later). Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. Open the COVIDTracer or the COVIDTracer Advanced spreadsheet (whichever you downloaded) and click the box at the top of the document that says, Enable Macros, or Enable Content (depending on version of Excel being used). Int. Excel spreadsheet blamed for UK's COVID-19 test and trace woes An Excel spreadsheet was behind IT glitch that caused thousands of positive COVID-19 tests to be omitted from the UK's. This virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. J. Infect. Peng, L., Yang, W., Zhang, D., Zhuge, C. & Hong, L. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. In the toolbar, click on "Get Data" and in the . Use Google Sheets to create and edit online spreadsheets. 1 and 2; Table 1; Fig. 2C,D). Accessed 29 Dec 2020. medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.XXXXXXXXXX (2020). Date published: April 14, 2022. Med. In addition, SIR-related models do not explicitly account for the active infective role of asymptomatic individuals. This may lead to relevant inaccuracies, for example missing the occurrence of the epidemic plateau that has been frequently observed during COVID-19 progression in different regional settings21. The formulation of Eqs. To that aim, differential Eqs. COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced numbers are NOT predictions of what will occur during the COVID-19 pandemic. The cumulative number of infected patients (X) is the total number of subjects among the population that have been infected by SARS-CoV-2. 9, 523 (2020). Change by continent/state. Updated information because the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme ended on 30 September 2021. Division of Budget and Analysis 2001 Mail Service Center Raleigh, NC 27699-2001 919-855-4850 Here (1) is the current level of activity in the region due to the implementation of social distancing measures (). This article explains how to build a singlequery in more detail. Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in NYC. 11, 761784 (2014). (A) Model prediction of the total number of symptomatic patients through the months of Mach and December, 2020. Office of the Secretary (OSEC) Administrative Review Board (ARB) Benefits Review Board (BRB) Bureau of International Labor Affairs (ILAB) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Shahzad, L. A brief review of socio-economic and environmental impact of Covid-19. Our simulations predict that the total number of cases positive for COVID-19 would have exceeded 1.3 million in the absence of social distancing measures during the first 100days of the epidemic. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. S1). Article This is a simple SIR model, implemented in Excel (download from this link). The value of (XR), determinant of the progression of the infection among population, is shown as a red line. Glob. Need help finding a COVID-19 vaccine in Louisiana? The volume of results overwhelmed the data limits of the Excel spreadsheet set up to receive it. Downing Street revealed extra contact tracers had now been drafted in to help track down the contacts of people whose positive tests went unreported between 25 September to 2 . Health Epidemiol https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020011 (2020). 20, 565574 (2020). Monday 5 October 2020, 4:29pm. Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in Pittsburgh, PA, USA. Hellewell, J. et al. Lee, D. & Lee, J. The relevance of wide-scale testing to control the progression of COVID-19 in urban areas has been discussed widely in literature. During a public health emergency, HHSC must quickly mobilize to help Texans. Different exponential stages, perfectly distinguishable by their exhibition of different slopes (Table 3), may be observed within the same time series. Simulation predictions are described by the yellow line. (D) Natural logarithm of the cumulative number of positive cases of COVID-19 infection in Italy (blue squares and diamonds) and South Korea (red circles and triangles). Phys. Oct 07, 2020 3:47 PM. It includes the dimensions of agency, fund,. Testing on the move: South Koreas rapid response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts. Subramanian, R., He, Q. Power Query on Mac does not support web sources yet. Elizondo-Montemayor, L. et al. Therefore, we assume that all those infected not quarantined could continue to transmit the virus until full recovery (21days). Some functionality is not available in Microsoft Office for Macs or in the browser version of Office 365. Free COVID-19 Staff temperature chart. This spreadsheet includes variables that may be important to understanding the risk to healthcare workers and other patients. Do you have to use all the new features of COVIDTracer Advanced? Proportion of asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Lai, C. C., Shih, T. P., Ko, W. C., Tang, H. J. Prompetchara, E., Ketloy, C. & Palaga, T. Allergy and immunology immune responses in COVID-19 and potential vaccines: Lessons learned from SARS and MERS epidemic. Please note that all data are provisional and subject to change. Texas COVID-19 Case Data Coronavirus (COVID-19) Medicaid Recipients Click here to find out what action you need to take due to the end of continuous Medicaid coverage. These CSV files contain daily data on the COVID-19 pandemic for the US and individual states. Swiss J. Econ. COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. Td, which can also be defined as a function of time td(t), gives a reliable measure of the efficiency of the containment policy44,45. This greatly facilitates its widespread use. Coronavirus (COVID-19) TestingOur World in Data. Our public data API provides access to all of our data at a national and state level. 07th April 2020. ECDC will continue to publish weekly updates on the number of cases and deaths reported in the EU/EEA and worldwide every Thursday. Transport. Note also that is related to the doubling time (td), often reported in population and epidemiological studies, by the equation td=Ln 2/. Lancet Glob. This is somewhat consistent with the information now available on the number of PCR tests conducted in the USA during March and April 2020. Data available to download below includes: number of people tested, and number positive and negative number of people who have died and tested positive More information is available, Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People, COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced Features, COVIDTracer Advanced DRAFT Report Template, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), COVID-19 Contact Tracing Communications Graphics, Prioritizing Case Investigations & Contact Tracing in High Burden Jurisdictions, Interim Guidance on Developing a COVID-19 Case Investigation & Contact Tracing Plan: Overview, Training Case Investigators & Contact Tracers, Managing Investigations During an Outbreak, Reporting & Analyzing COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status, Toolkit for Health Officials Managing Companion Animals with SARS-CoV-2, Guidance for Disaster Shelters During COVID-19, Communication Resources for Health Departments, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Modeling the pandemic evolution in South Korea was more challenging than that in NYC. Source: COVID Tracking Project (https://covidtracking.com/api). Save time with intelligence-enhanced tools for experts and beginners. By Whitney Tesi. 17, 065006 (2020). Article Data is by country by day, and would be a good candidate for a Pivot Tableto provide totals. Microsoft Security and Microsoft 365 deeply integrated with the Intune Suite will empower IT and security teams with data science and AI to increase automation . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0011601. A SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization in March 2020. Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico City. CSV XLSX COVID-19 Funds Transparency Another fraction of infected subjects (1) is not effectively retrieved from the population until they have recovered or died from the disease. Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine is a monovalent COVID-19 vaccine that is authorized for emergency use to prevent COVID-19 as a: Two-dose primary series for individuals 6 months of age and older. Additional explanations are provided in the accompanying manuals, which can be downloaded using the links below. This means that, to properly fit the actual data on cumulative cases and new infections per day (Fig. After enabling macros, click the Start button on the cover page to start navigating the tool. Lancet 395, 931934 (2020). Mathematical modeling may (and probably should) become a much more available tool in the case of public health emergenciesone ideally widely available to practically any citizen in any of our societies. Each state has its own set of caveats, which we have documented on our data page. Interdiscip. "Making COVID-19 data open and available in BigQuery will be a boon to researchers and analysis in the field," says Sam Skillman, Head of Engineering at Descartes Labs. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate. The value of (XR), determinant of the progression of the infection among population, is shown as a red line. Efficiency of Covid-19 mobile contact tracing containment by measuring time dependent doubling time. Each example has a link, a screenshot to show what the data looks like in Excel after being imported, and an Excel workbook. We found that, adapting the model to a particular locality is straightforward and only requires (a) the declaration of the population of the urban area, and (b) the selection of a td value (time to doubling the name of infections) or o (initial infective rate); (ln 2=o td). medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20020248 (2020). Refresh cell C2 (try changing to your state by . This mortality percentage (case fatality rate) lies within the range reported in recent literature for COVID-1914,38,39,40. Therefore, in our formulation, the overall rate of retrieval (dR/dt) has two distinct contributions, each one associated with different terms on the right-hand side of Eq. At the time of this writing, Mexico has conducted 23 tests per 1000 inhabitants. In general, a web page is not as reliable as a data file, since the structure of a web page is more complex and might change. The results of our simulations suggest that strict measures of social distancing had to be rapidly implemented in NYC during the first weeks of the pandemic episode and that the measures of social distancing imposed in NYC were equivalent to a decrease in the effective demographic density of more than 70% (>0.70) in a few days. We also have followed the onset and progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mxico City, the most industrialized and most populated city in Mxico. Lancet Infect. The daily and weekly data are available as downloadable files in the following formats: XLSX, CSV, JSON and XML. Both COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced use the Windows* operating system (Microsoft Windows 2010 or higher) and Excel (Microsoft Office 2013 or higher). Similarly, asymptomatic patients are only removed from the pool of susceptible persons after full virus clearance. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. By contrast, as of December 2020, the USA and South Korea had conducted 688 and 71.65 tests per 1000 inhabitants (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)50. HomeJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. This data contains historical Coronavirus testing data for the United States at the state level. Math. Centro de Biotecnologa-FEMSA, Tecnologico de Monterrey, 64849, Monterrey, NL, Mexico, Mario Moiss Alvarez,Everardo Gonzlez-Gonzlez&Grissel Trujillo-de Santiago, Departamento de Bioingeniera, Escuela de Ingeniera y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, 64849, Monterrey, NL, Mexico, Mario Moiss Alvarez&Everardo Gonzlez-Gonzlez, Departamento de Ingeniera Mecatrnica y Elctrica, Escuela de Ingeniera y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, 64849, Monterrey, NL, Mexico, You can also search for this author in Stat. Cookies used to enable you to share pages and content that you find interesting on CDC.gov through third party social networking and other websites. Ser. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering (2022). FEMA Coronavirus (COVID-19) Response : Updates on federal partners working with state, local, tribal and territorial governments to execute a whole-of-America response to the pandemic. 156, 119 (2020). On Sunday, one of the United Kingdom 's public health agencies announced that 15,841 covid-19 cases had gone unreported due to a "technical issue" that occurred during "the data load . Therefore, ranges of doubling times between 1.07 and 5.77days are observed just among these three regional cases. Mapping spreadsheet of COVID-19 data elements to several Common Data Models (CDMs) and open standards. For this term, the delay from the onset of virus shedding to positive diagnosis and quarantine (delay_q) is considered short (i.e., about 2 or 5days), to account for a reasonable time between the positive diagnosis and the action of quarantine. Title: Memorandum - Extension of the Coronavirus COVID-19 Schedule A Hiring Authority Author: U.S. Office of Personnel Management Subject: The U.S. Office of Personnel Management \(OPM\) is extending the use of the excepted service Schedule A Hiring Authority under 5 CFR 213.3102\(i\)\(3\) for hiring additional staff into positions needed in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic until Ma . 289, 113041 (2020). To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions [i.e., New York City (NYC), South Korea, Mexico City]. J. Med. Below are the steps for Web Scraping Coronavirus Data into Excel: Step 1) Use the requests library to grab the page. Scientific Reports (Sci Rep) Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. Next, we discuss criteria for selection of the values of o based on the initial behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic at different urban areas around the globe. In addition to the DSHS COVID-19 Dashboard, DSHS has made available the following datasets.Additional information on data, including data definitions and caveats, can be found on the Data Notes page. EPA expects products on List N to kill all strains and variants of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) when used according to the label directions. Figure3D shows the predictions of the number of daily cases of COVID-19 in NYC in different scenarios (i.e., with no intervention, with only social distancing [~0.75; =0.10], and with social distancing and aggressive testing as actually implemented). In general, the USA is one of the leading countries in terms of the number of PCR tests performed during the first semester of 2020, and NYC was the first epicenter of COVID-19 in America49,50. Mario Moiss Alvarez. Bakker, M., Berke, A., Groh, M., Pentland, A. S. & Moro, E. Effect of Social Distancing Measures in the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first equation of the set (Eq. Your email address is private and not shared. bioRxiv. Studies show that high numbers of viral particles (~105 viral copies mL1) can be found in saliva from COVID-19 patients even at day 20 after the onset of symptoms37. This page describes in detail how the query was created. MATH Rather, they are designed to aid public health officials in planning and preparing for contact tracing of COVID-19 cases. Mobile No *. Xu, Z. et al. The number of daily cases has increased from October to December 2020 and has now reached alarming values at the end of 2020 (i.e., more than 5000 cases per day). Simulation predictions are described by the yellow line. Please note that in this demographic model (Eqs. CDC twenty four seven. However, the long-term analysis of the progression of COVID-19 in NYC required the consideration of testing campaigns.