Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Vance. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. I just want Trump in. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. SACRAMENTO . The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Jim Hoft. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. People need to get a job, get out and work. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Pre-performance Lobby events. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. We believe that there are two main reasons. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. It was easy. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. I trust the system implicitly, he said. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. He says Democratic Gov. I quit voting once out of the union.. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Its just not that great, Paul said. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. She shook her head at the high price of gas. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Nothing is free, Hawker said. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Theyre scared. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Weve never done that before.. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I got a life. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. I hope.. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. I think all politicians are crooks. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Youre not getting anybody perfect. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. He considers Trump pro-life. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Theres too much mishandling, she said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. By Cara Ding. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. I believe in a time cycle. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Were a service industry-oriented area. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. He cares about the American people.. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I dont watch TV. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. And it can happen.. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. I think we needed somebody like him.. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. . Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Its gone, Jacobs said. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. I think thats what the world needed. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. This includes personalizing content and advertising. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. And we just want that to continue. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.